Severe thunderstorms · Lightning safety · Storm forecasts
Of the estimated 100,000 thunderstorms that occur each year in the United States, about 10% are classified as severe. The National Weather Service considers a thunderstorm severe if it produces:
Severe thunderstorms are known to cause significant damage to well-built structures or cause bodily harm. These strong storms can also produce frequent and dangerous lightning, flooding, and tornadoes.
Thunderstorms can occur anywhere in Monmouth County. Typically, New Jersey experiences about 20 days per year of thunderstorm activity, predominantly in the warmer months — March through October.
In the United States, there are an estimated 100,000 thunderstorms each year, of which approximately 10 percent reach severe status. Thunderstorms can produce:
Typical thunderstorms are 15 miles in diameter and last an average of 30 minutes. These typically short-lived and smaller storms can be very dangerous and always produce lightning.
In order to tell how close a lightning strike is, count the seconds between the lightning flash and the resulting thunder. For every 5 seconds you count, lightning is one mile away.
A good rule of thumb with regards to lightning safety: If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Even if it is not raining where you are, lightning can still reach you.
Lightning can travel as far as 10 miles away from its thunderstorm, and has been observed as far as 25 miles away. This is why the best thing you can do when you see lightning is seek safe shelter as soon as possible.
"If you hear thunder, you are likely in striking distance of the storm."
Although meteorologists can predict the general conditions needed to produce lightning, no one can forecast exactly where and when the next strike of lightning will hit. Therefore, if you know that thunderstorms are in the forecast, you know that lightning is, too.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues forecasts based on the potential for organized severe thunderstorms. The outlooks show the areas where severe thunderstorms may develop and qualifies the degree of risk:
Non-severe thunderstorms outlined in green on the map
Well-organized severe thunderstorms expected but in relatively small numbers
Greater concentration of severe thunderstorms — enhanced chance for significant outbreak
Major severe weather outbreak expected — used only a few times each year
SLGT (Slight) risk implies that well-organized severe thunderstorms are expected but in relatively small numbers, or a small chance of a more significant severe event. MDT (Moderate) risk is usually reserved for days with an enhanced chance for a significant severe storm outbreak. The HIGH risk category implies a major severe weather outbreak with large coverage of severe weather and the likelihood of extreme severe storms (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging wind events).
